Sub Saharan African wheat demand to outstrip North African demand by 2025

Wheat demand from Sub Saharan Africa is likely to outstrip that of the traditional large wheat impo…

Wheat demand from Sub Saharan Africa is likely to outstrip that of the traditional large wheat importers in North African markets by 2025, Rabobank said.

"Structural differences exist between the regions, and while North Africa has the highest per capita consumption and a saturated market, Sub Saharan Africa has much smaller per capita consumption with higher potential, coupled with stronger population growth," said Rabobank grains & oilseeds analyst Vito Martielli.

"The latter will be the key driver in widening the gap between local production in Sub Saharan Africa and potential long-term demand."

Demand moves south

The African continent currently accounts for 27% of the wheat traded on the global market, Rabobank notes, with demand, with demand growing by an annual 3.8% since the millennium.

And demand is growing fastest in Sub-Saharan countries, wheat imports are expected to rise by 40-50% over the next ten years, compared to a 16% rise in North Africa.

Rabobank forecast Sub-Saharan Africa to by 33m tonnes of wheat by the 2025-26 marketing year, Rabobank forecast, 4m tonnes more than North African countries.

Rising population, demand

While Egypt and Algeria are currently the world's biggest customers, importing 18m tonnes between them, a number of East and West African countries are growing in importance, largely driven by ongoing population growth and rising per capita consumption.

The latter two regions are expected to account for 71% of Africa's population growth by 2030, or 315m people, with North Africa growing at 13% or 55m people in the same period.

East Africa has more potential to grow its own wheat, but this capability is likely to be overtaken by population growth, meaning some imports will still be necessary, Rabobank said.